Don’t Bomb Iran

summary: A 300 page, two year study by the US army Strategic
Studies Institute, published in October 05, suggests “Iran is now no
more than 12 to 48 months from acquiring a nuclear bomb, lacks for
nothing technologically or materially to produce it, and seems dead set
on securing an option to do so.” It also suggests that Israeli and US
military options are very limited to prevent this, and that they might
have to live with a nuclear-armed Iran. They suggest seven
recommendations on how to contain Iran in that case.

GETTING READY FOR A NUCLEAR-READY IRAN
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB629.pdf
page 9

As for the most popular policy options -to bomb or bribe Iran- too few
analysts and officials are willing to admit publicly how self-defeating
these courses of action might be. This report, based on commissioned
research and 2 years=92 worth of meetings with the nation=92s leading
experts on Iran, the Middle East, and nuclear proliferation, is intended
to highlight sounder policy options.

These recommendations were:

1. Discrediting the legitimacy of Iran=92s nuclear program as a model for =

other proliferators through a series of follow-on meetings to the 2005
NPT Review Conference to clarify what activities qualify as being
=93peaceful=94 under the NPT.

2. Increasing the costs for Iran and its neighbors to leave or infringe th=
e
NPT by establishing country-neutral rules against violators withdrawing
from the treaty and against NPT violators more generally.

3. Securing Russian cooperation in these efforts by offering Moscow a
lucrative U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement.

4. Reducing Persian Gulf oil and gas production and distribution
system vulnerabilities to possible terrorist disruptions by building
additional back-up capabilities in Saudi Arabia.

5. Limiting Iran=92s freedom to threaten oil and gas shipping by proposing=

a Montreux-like convention to demilitarize the Straits of Hormuz and
an agreement to limit possible incidents at sea.

6. Isolating Iran as a regional producer of fissile materials by
encouraging Israel to take the first steps to freeze and dismantle such
capabilities.

7. Backing these diplomatic-economic initiatives with increased U.S.-
allied anti-terrorist, defense, naval border security, and nuclear
nonproliferation cooperation.

–
Peter Morris
Currently in Australia

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