Don’t Bomb Iran

In a interview with Australian TV, Henry Kissinger advocates discussions with Iran to avoid a controntation over oil (not nukes).  He says “at the end of the day the industrialised world will not permit them to dominate all the energy resources so that they will be drawn into a replica of the Iran-Iraq war of two decades ago”.

LEIGH SALES: Alright let’s have a look at Iran. You’re on the record as favouring an open discussion. Given the mistrust on both sides, how is a constructive dialogue going to get under way?

DR HENRY KISSINGER: The constructive discussion means that both sides have come to the understanding that they can not settle their differences by confrontation. If either side thinking they can prevail by confrontation, especially the Iranian, there will be not be a meaningful negotiation.

But assuming the Iranians begin to understand that while many appearances are in their favour right now, at the end of the day the industrialised world will not permit them to dominate all the energy resources so that they will be drawn into a replica of the Iran-Iraq war of two decades ago (my emphasis - ed). And at the end of which they will have to settle anyway on some agreed compromise.

So assuming they come to that realisation, then the way to proceed seems to me to be to have some very private negotiations first, maybe not even by formal representatives in which the two-thirds put forward for each other what their vision is of what a stable settlement in the region would be.

And if one is wise in such a process, one will put forward a reasonable proposal and not a maximum proposal that one then proceeds to give up in a series of salami-type negotiations. I don’t know if that is possible. But if that is not possible, then some confrontation with Iran will be inevitable. And so we all have a stake in attempting to prevent it

LEIGH SALES: Regarding Iran’s behaviour, given that it has an unfriendly Israel close by with nuclear weapons, an unstable neighbour in Iraq, nuclear arms, Pakistan and India on the doorstep and a hostile relationship with the nuclear armed United States, isn’t Iran behaving logically by trying to gather nuclear weapons?

DR HENRY KISSINGER: But some of the conditions you describe are caused by Iran. They’re not in the nature of things. It is not in the nature of things that America is hostile to Iran.

A prosperous, significant Iran is not against the American interests. On the contrary, I think it’s an important element of a peaceful structure in the region. And when the Shah was in power we had excellent relationships with an Iran that we were attempting to strengthen, not weaken.

Israel needs - it’s unfriendly to towards Iran only because of the threat of primarily because the threat to its existence that come from Iran. So this is not in the nature of things. Of course, geographically Iran is in the precarious position of any peripheral country bordering.

So Iran has legitimate security concerns and they should be seriously taken into account. But they don’t require an assault on the international system that they launched ideologically and that is the key element that requires resolution one way for other.

Tags: attack, Iran, kissinger, oil