Don’t Bomb Iran

The IDF is drawing up options to attack Iranian nuclear facilities by itself, reports the Jerusalem Post, after recent stories that the White House will not support such a strike.   Most experts suggest a lone attack would be difficult without US permission to fly over Iraq on a long range-bombing run, but few mention that Israel has other options: huge unmanned high-altitude aircraft,   submarines with conventional and nuclear cruise missiles, a reported deal to use Geogian airbases , a possible ICBM capability, and overflying Turkey as it did with its strike on Syria last year.

While none of these options would enable massive attacks on multiple targets, they could probably take out Bushehr and even Natanz with luck.   A limited Israeli attack would probably draw the US into war, because the inevitable Iranian retaliation would almost oblige  the Washington warhawks to respond in a more massive way,  conveniently letting the White House avoid accusations of illegal preventive war.

Summaries of the options are below, click the headings for more detail

Secret Israel-Georgia airfield deal for Iran attack: UPI
on September 3rd, 2008

Israel producing massive unmanned aircraft
March 22nd, 2007
summary: Israel is developing the world’s largest unmanned aircraft which will be used for long-range high-altitude operations and destroying ballistic missiles as they are being launched. The Eitan has a wing span of 35 metres (110 feet) — similar to that of a Boeing 737 passenger plane — the official told AFP. A response to the ‘Iran threat’, the first flight was in Jan 2007. According to Janes Defence Weekly, the weapons payload is 1800kg, more than enough to carry nuclear weapons, and can fly for 50 hours at 50,000 feet, above anti-aircraft defences, and must have a range of thousands of kilometers.

Israel’s nuclear weapons submarines: Germany builds two more Dolphins
March 1st, 2006
summary: Germany paid about $800 million to build three nuclear-weapons capable submarines for Israel after the 1991 Gulf War. For years it has been hinted that they are strategic, second-strike nuclear deterrent weapons. They carry US-supplied nuclear-capable missiles, and have been tested with long-range cruise missiles: few analysts doubt that Israel has actually fitted nukes to them, but there is no proof. A former Pentagon official told the Washington Post in 2002, “It is above top secret knowing whether the sub-launched cruise missiles are nuclear-armed.” Another former official added, “We often don’t ask.” Germany will soon build two more, which is possibly illegal under EU law.

Israel’s ICBM: Pentagon experts say Shavit rocket can throw a warhead 7,200 km

June 26th, 2002 summary: Israel has a large rocket to put satellites into space, the Shavit. If used as a missile to deliver a nuclear warhead, various experts estimate it would have a range of 4000 to 7200 kilometers, depending on the weight of the warhead.

Eitan UAV

Dolphin submarine in Haifa

Tags: attack, Iran, Israel, options, submarines