Don’t Bomb Iran

A two week Pentagon war game exercise modelling  an Israeli attack on Iran seems to have spooked top brass, and its dire forecasts are leaked to the NYT.

 

War game predicts Israel-Iran conflict disastrous for US.

NYT  Mark Mazzetti, Thom Shanker March 21, 2012

 

WASHINGTON: A classified war simulation exercise to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, that could draw in the US and leave hundreds of Americans dead.

US officials said the so-called war game earlier this month was not designed as a rehearsal for US military action – and they emphasised that the exercise’s results were not the only possible outcome of a real world conflict. But the game has raised fears among senior planners that it may be impossible to preclude US involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran.

In the debate over the consequences of any possible Israeli attack, that reaction may give stronger voice to those within the White House, Pentagon and intelligence services who have warned that a strike could prove perilous for the US.

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The results of the war game were particularly disturbing for General James Mattis, who commands US forces in the Middle East, Persian Gulf and south-west Asia, said unnamed officials close to the Central Command exercise. When the exercise ended they said, General Mattis told aides that an Israeli first strike would likely have dire consequences across the region and for US forces based there.

The two-week war game, called ”Internal Look”, involved playing out a narrative in which the US found it was pulled into the conflict after Iranian missiles struck a US warship in the Persian Gulf, killing about 200 personnel. In the exercise the US then retaliated by launching its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The initial Israeli attack was assessed to have set back the Iranian nuclear program by about a year, and the subsequent US strikes did not slow the Iranian nuclear program by more than an additional two years. However, other Pentagon planners have said that America’s arsenal of long-range bombers, refuelling aircraft and precision missiles could do far more damage to the Iranian nuclear program – if President Barack Obama were to decide on a full-scale retaliation.

In the end, the war game reinforced the unpredictable and uncontrollable nature of a strike by Israel, and a counterstrike by Iran, the officials said.

US and Israeli intelligence services broadly agree on the progress Iran has made to enrich uranium.

But they disagree on how much time there would be to prevent Iran from building a weapon if leaders in Tehran decided to go ahead.

Publicly the Israelis say that the window to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb is closing, and the US sees an Israeli attack on Iran within the next year as a possibility.

Privately they believe Israel would probably give the US little or no warning should it decide to strike Iranian nuclear sites. Some military specialists who have assessed the potential ramifications of an Israeli attack believe that the last thing Iran would want is a full-scale war on its territory.

Consequently they say that Iran would not directly strike US military targets, whether warships in the Persian Gulf or bases in the region.

The New York Times

via War game predicts Israel-Iran conflict disastrous for US.